To start the week, wheat opened higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day session. Early support came from reports that neither Iran nor the US agreed to the other’s terms for peace. This will continue to keep the Strait closed. The market ignored weather forecasts that put weekend rains in OK and TX better than expected. CO and KS missed out on most of the rain. Early estimates have winter wheat conditions unchanged and spring wheat planting progress at 50%. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was also evident.
In Tuesday’s session wheat gapped higher on the opening bell and rallied from there. Early support came from USDA’s Crop Progress report, which showed a lower-than-expected crop rating for winter wheat. Mpls was a follower today as although planting progress has caught up to normal, Mpls was looking for direction as Mpls gets left out of this report. The crop report was bullish wheat, which sent both winter wheat contracts to trade limit up by the close. Mpls did not have the same strength, but Mpls was able to close with solid gains.
For old crop 2025, USDA decreased food demand 7 MB but offset the increase by increasing exports 10 MB. The net result was a 3 MB decrease in ending stocks, putting stocks at 935 MB (1 MB above expectations).
For new crop 2026, USDA put planted acreage at 43.8 million, harvest acreage at 32.9 million and yield at 47.5 bus. Production was estimated at 1.56 BB, down 174 MB from expectations and down 424 MB from last year. Demand was estimated at 1.874 BB. This puts ending stocks at 762 MB, 71 MB below expectations, 171 MB below the Ag Outlook Forum, and 173 MB below last year. The national average price is estimated at $6.50, up $1.50 from last year.
Old crop world numbers were friendly with stocks at 279.2 MMT, 3.7 MMT below expectations, 3.9 MMT below last month, but 4.9 MMT above last year.
New crop world numbers were also friendly with stocks estimated at 275.0 MMT, 5.9 MMT below expectations and 4.2 MMT below last year. Every signal major exporting wheat country showed decreasing production.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls lower while the two winter wheat exchanges opened with small gains. Early support for the winter wheat exchanges came from the day one results from the Wheat Quality Tour. The first day put wheat yields at 38.3 bus vs 50.5 bus last year and 45.7 bus for the five-year average. Mpls was pressured by profit taking and technical selling was traders took profits after seeing sharp gains over the past few sessions. Safras and Mercado is estimating Argentina’s wheat production at 28.2 MMT, down 5% year over year due to a 5% decline in planted acreage. Technically wheat looks tied and is in need of a correction, but any retracement will be limited due to the lower-than-expected winter wheat crop.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session lower, turned to trade mixed in the overnight session, but came under heavy selling pressure at the start of the day session. Profit taking and the need to clean up an overbought market condition started wheat lower, but wheat found support and tried to stage a slight recovery in the overnight session. Support was due to expectations that the winter wheat crop is not improving and that conditions would show another decline in Monday’s report. Day two of the Wheat Quality Tour did not find any better wheat. The yield for day two came in at 39.3 bus vs 53.3 bus last year and 43.4 bus the previous year. Wheat started to show signs of fatigue on Wednesday, and the selloff in the soybeans was enough to push wheat traders into selling as well. The 7-day forecast shows good rain for the Corn Belt but limited rain for the Southern Plains.
Hedgers target $7.85 to advance spring wheat sales.
July MIAX MW support is $6.75, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.90, July Chicago wheat support is $6.25, July KC support is $6.60.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.8525 up 6.75 cents while Sept was at $7.0575 up 6.25 cents, July Chicago was at $6.3575 up 16.75 cents, July KC was at $6.88 up 12.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments May 15
Wheat Weekly Comments May 15
To start the week, wheat opened higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day session. Early support came from reports that neither Iran nor the US agreed to the other’s terms for peace. This will continue to keep the Strait closed. The market ignored weather forecasts that put weekend rains in OK and TX better than expected. CO and KS missed out on most of the rain. Early estimates have winter wheat conditions unchanged and spring wheat planting progress at 50%. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was also evident.
In Tuesday’s session wheat gapped higher on the opening bell and rallied from there. Early support came from USDA’s Crop Progress report, which showed a lower-than-expected crop rating for winter wheat. Mpls was a follower today as although planting progress has caught up to normal, Mpls was looking for direction as Mpls gets left out of this report. The crop report was bullish wheat, which sent both winter wheat contracts to trade limit up by the close. Mpls did not have the same strength, but Mpls was able to close with solid gains.
For old crop 2025, USDA decreased food demand 7 MB but offset the increase by increasing exports 10 MB. The net result was a 3 MB decrease in ending stocks, putting stocks at 935 MB (1 MB above expectations).
For new crop 2026, USDA put planted acreage at 43.8 million, harvest acreage at 32.9 million and yield at 47.5 bus. Production was estimated at 1.56 BB, down 174 MB from expectations and down 424 MB from last year. Demand was estimated at 1.874 BB. This puts ending stocks at 762 MB, 71 MB below expectations, 171 MB below the Ag Outlook Forum, and 173 MB below last year. The national average price is estimated at $6.50, up $1.50 from last year.
Old crop world numbers were friendly with stocks at 279.2 MMT, 3.7 MMT below expectations, 3.9 MMT below last month, but 4.9 MMT above last year.
New crop world numbers were also friendly with stocks estimated at 275.0 MMT, 5.9 MMT below expectations and 4.2 MMT below last year. Every signal major exporting wheat country showed decreasing production.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls lower while the two winter wheat exchanges opened with small gains. Early support for the winter wheat exchanges came from the day one results from the Wheat Quality Tour. The first day put wheat yields at 38.3 bus vs 50.5 bus last year and 45.7 bus for the five-year average. Mpls was pressured by profit taking and technical selling was traders took profits after seeing sharp gains over the past few sessions. Safras and Mercado is estimating Argentina’s wheat production at 28.2 MMT, down 5% year over year due to a 5% decline in planted acreage. Technically wheat looks tied and is in need of a correction, but any retracement will be limited due to the lower-than-expected winter wheat crop.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session lower, turned to trade mixed in the overnight session, but came under heavy selling pressure at the start of the day session. Profit taking and the need to clean up an overbought market condition started wheat lower, but wheat found support and tried to stage a slight recovery in the overnight session. Support was due to expectations that the winter wheat crop is not improving and that conditions would show another decline in Monday’s report. Day two of the Wheat Quality Tour did not find any better wheat. The yield for day two came in at 39.3 bus vs 53.3 bus last year and 43.4 bus the previous year. Wheat started to show signs of fatigue on Wednesday, and the selloff in the soybeans was enough to push wheat traders into selling as well. The 7-day forecast shows good rain for the Corn Belt but limited rain for the Southern Plains.
Hedgers target $7.85 to advance spring wheat sales.
July MIAX MW support is $6.75, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.90, July Chicago wheat support is $6.25, July KC support is $6.60.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.8525 up 6.75 cents while Sept was at $7.0575 up 6.25 cents, July Chicago was at $6.3575 up 16.75 cents, July KC was at $6.88 up 12.25 cents.