To start the week wheat opened the session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction. Mpls was lower. Chicago was higher. KC was steady. By the end of the overnight session, winter wheat had traded in a 15 to 17 cent range with most of the range being in the red. Mpls saw a calmer session trading in 9 to 12 cent range. Early selling was tied to expectations for improving conditions in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Concerns about the war in Iran and increasing tensions with China added pressure. Favorable weather also added pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges once again going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). The winter wheat exchanges were able to find support early while Mpls continued to trade lower. Early activity was focused on weather with Mpls seeing pressure from forecasts calling for rain for the Northern Plains. Winter wheat was supported by forecasts for rain as it continues to delay harvest progress. But once the day session started, Mpls collapsed pulling Chicago and KC wheat as well as corn with it. Selling was tied to improving weather forecasts and slow demand. SovEcon decreased their wheat production estimate for Russia, putting production at 88.9 MMT vs 90.3 MMT previously. Technically Tuesday’s close in Mpls was ugly.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session higher in all three exchanges and extended session gains early. Early support was due to profit taking and the need to correct an oversold market condition. But by the start of the day session, the gains in wheat faded and wheat was left with another lower session. Improving weather conditions added to the pressure as rain moved across ND and MN the past few days. Drier conditions are forecasted for the Southern Plains, which should help harvest progress advance. A stronger US dollar and lower crude oil market added pressure.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened lower across the board but managed to recover and trade with small gains by the end of the night. Both winter wheat exchanges expanded session gains throughout the day while Mpls remained under pressure. Winter wheat was supported by production concerns in the EU as extremely hot temps are starting to cause concerns. Europe is experiencing the hottest temps it has ever seen with highs yesterday topping 111 degrees. Mpls was under pressure from improving weather conditions for the Northern Plains. Rain and increasing temps are in the forecast for most of the Northern Plains, which will help push wheat development.
Estimates for next week’s Quarterly Grain Stocks reports has wheat stocks at 934 MB vs 855 MB last year. Estimates for the Acreage Report have all wheat acres at 43.858 million acres vs 43.775 million in March and vs 45.328 million last year. Winter wheat acreage is estimated at 32,422 million vs 32.41 million in March and vs 33.153 million last year. Other spring wheat acreage is estimated at 9.495 million vs 9.415 million in March and vs 9.99 million last year.
July MIAX MW support is $6.12, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.35, July Chicago wheat support is $5.78, July KC support is $6.12.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $5.755 down 47.5 cents while Sept was at $6.0525 down 42.5 cents, July Chicago was at $5.7825 down 27.5 cents, July KC was at $6.11 down 33.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments June 26
Wheat Weekly Comments June 26
To start the week wheat opened the session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction. Mpls was lower. Chicago was higher. KC was steady. By the end of the overnight session, winter wheat had traded in a 15 to 17 cent range with most of the range being in the red. Mpls saw a calmer session trading in 9 to 12 cent range. Early selling was tied to expectations for improving conditions in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Concerns about the war in Iran and increasing tensions with China added pressure. Favorable weather also added pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges once again going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). The winter wheat exchanges were able to find support early while Mpls continued to trade lower. Early activity was focused on weather with Mpls seeing pressure from forecasts calling for rain for the Northern Plains. Winter wheat was supported by forecasts for rain as it continues to delay harvest progress. But once the day session started, Mpls collapsed pulling Chicago and KC wheat as well as corn with it. Selling was tied to improving weather forecasts and slow demand. SovEcon decreased their wheat production estimate for Russia, putting production at 88.9 MMT vs 90.3 MMT previously. Technically Tuesday’s close in Mpls was ugly.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session higher in all three exchanges and extended session gains early. Early support was due to profit taking and the need to correct an oversold market condition. But by the start of the day session, the gains in wheat faded and wheat was left with another lower session. Improving weather conditions added to the pressure as rain moved across ND and MN the past few days. Drier conditions are forecasted for the Southern Plains, which should help harvest progress advance. A stronger US dollar and lower crude oil market added pressure.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened lower across the board but managed to recover and trade with small gains by the end of the night. Both winter wheat exchanges expanded session gains throughout the day while Mpls remained under pressure. Winter wheat was supported by production concerns in the EU as extremely hot temps are starting to cause concerns. Europe is experiencing the hottest temps it has ever seen with highs yesterday topping 111 degrees. Mpls was under pressure from improving weather conditions for the Northern Plains. Rain and increasing temps are in the forecast for most of the Northern Plains, which will help push wheat development.
Estimates for next week’s Quarterly Grain Stocks reports has wheat stocks at 934 MB vs 855 MB last year. Estimates for the Acreage Report have all wheat acres at 43.858 million acres vs 43.775 million in March and vs 45.328 million last year. Winter wheat acreage is estimated at 32,422 million vs 32.41 million in March and vs 33.153 million last year. Other spring wheat acreage is estimated at 9.495 million vs 9.415 million in March and vs 9.99 million last year.
July MIAX MW support is $6.12, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.35, July Chicago wheat support is $5.78, July KC support is $6.12.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $5.755 down 47.5 cents while Sept was at $6.0525 down 42.5 cents, July Chicago was at $5.7825 down 27.5 cents, July KC was at $6.11 down 33.0 cents.