After the long weekend, soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and stayed on the positive side. The market traded on both sides of unchanged in a choppy day session but found strength at the end of the session to close with decent gains. Overnight support spilled over from the sharply higher wheat markets. But the early day session saw pressure from non-threatening weather for the Corn Belt. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. The new marketing year started on Sept 1 and USDA estimates exports will increase 9% over this past year.
Dr Cordonnier left his national soybean yield estimate unchanged at 51.5 bu., a bit lower than USDA’s current estimate of 52.7 bu. Soybean planting has begun in the Brazilian state of Parana. After the close, the crop progress report left the soybean rating unchanged at 58% g/e. Traders had expected to see a 1% decline. Of the major states, the biggest declines were seen in KS and MO, both down 7%.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in a choppy session on Wednesday and closed lower. A lack of fresh news and positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA reported pressured soybeans. Profit taking added pressure. Losses were limited by USDA sales announcements of 340,000 MT of soybeans to China and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations. StoneX left their estimate of the US soybean yield unchanged at 53.0 bu.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range for the first part of the overnight session, then climbed higher throughout the rest of the overnight and day session to close sharply higher and at new highs. Support came from reports that China has purchased 1 MMT of US soybeans this week ahead of Chinese President Xi’s visit to the US on Sept 24. Yesterday USDA reported sales of 340,000 MT to China and 100,000 MT to unknown. Today there were sales of 272,000 MT to China and 206,500 MT to unknown. If the unknown sales are China, this week’s total so far is 918,500 MT. Spillover support from the sharply higher crude oil market added to the gains.
Ahead of Friday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for old crop ending stocks is 317 MB vs. 325 MB last month and new crop ending stocks are estimated at 292 MB vs. 320 MB last month. The average trade estimate for the soybean yield is 52.5 bu. vs. 52.7 bu. last month and production at 4.498 BB vs. 4.519 BB last month. New crop world ending stocks are estimated at 122.9 MMT vs. 124.2 MMT last month.
Nov soybean support is at $12.15.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.965 down 13.25 cents while Jan soybeans were at $13.12 down 13.0 cents. Oct soybean meal at $346.80 down $1.40 and Oct soybean oil was at $69.19 up 30 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments September 11
Soybean Weekly Comments September 11
After the long weekend, soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and stayed on the positive side. The market traded on both sides of unchanged in a choppy day session but found strength at the end of the session to close with decent gains. Overnight support spilled over from the sharply higher wheat markets. But the early day session saw pressure from non-threatening weather for the Corn Belt. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. The new marketing year started on Sept 1 and USDA estimates exports will increase 9% over this past year.
Dr Cordonnier left his national soybean yield estimate unchanged at 51.5 bu., a bit lower than USDA’s current estimate of 52.7 bu. Soybean planting has begun in the Brazilian state of Parana. After the close, the crop progress report left the soybean rating unchanged at 58% g/e. Traders had expected to see a 1% decline. Of the major states, the biggest declines were seen in KS and MO, both down 7%.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in a choppy session on Wednesday and closed lower. A lack of fresh news and positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA reported pressured soybeans. Profit taking added pressure. Losses were limited by USDA sales announcements of 340,000 MT of soybeans to China and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations. StoneX left their estimate of the US soybean yield unchanged at 53.0 bu.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range for the first part of the overnight session, then climbed higher throughout the rest of the overnight and day session to close sharply higher and at new highs. Support came from reports that China has purchased 1 MMT of US soybeans this week ahead of Chinese President Xi’s visit to the US on Sept 24. Yesterday USDA reported sales of 340,000 MT to China and 100,000 MT to unknown. Today there were sales of 272,000 MT to China and 206,500 MT to unknown. If the unknown sales are China, this week’s total so far is 918,500 MT. Spillover support from the sharply higher crude oil market added to the gains.
Ahead of Friday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for old crop ending stocks is 317 MB vs. 325 MB last month and new crop ending stocks are estimated at 292 MB vs. 320 MB last month. The average trade estimate for the soybean yield is 52.5 bu. vs. 52.7 bu. last month and production at 4.498 BB vs. 4.519 BB last month. New crop world ending stocks are estimated at 122.9 MMT vs. 124.2 MMT last month.
Nov soybean support is at $12.15.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.965 down 13.25 cents while Jan soybeans were at $13.12 down 13.0 cents. Oct soybean meal at $346.80 down $1.40 and Oct soybean oil was at $69.19 up 30 cents.