Wheat started Monday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls steady, Chicago lower, KC higher). Technical buying helped to give wheat support early as wheat tried to bounce off lows not seen since Aug. But by midsession wheat turned lower due to spill over selling pressure from the lower corn market and soybean complex. Light selling was due to a very disappointing export inspections report (which is at its slowest pace in 3 years and is currently 36% below last year). News that Ukraine was talking to neighboring countries about allowing Ukraine to ship grains on their railroads added pressure. Light selling was tied to expectation that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting activity.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened steady to lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turned to trade with gains throughout the night. Early support came from Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed slow planting progress. Planting progress is estimated to be at the slowest pace on record and today is the last planting date for crop insurance purposes. But the lack of demand and recent heavy liquidation by the funds proved to be too much for the wheat exchanges to overcome. By midsession wheat had faded its gains and was trading in the red. This makes this the 8th straight session that wheat has closed lower.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended session losses early. Selling was tied to reports that Putin is asking for a meeting between Xi and Trump and himself and for the three to come up with an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, along with the war in Iran. The lack of export demand and fund selling added to the pressure. Selling was also tied to weather forecasts calling for favorable weather conditions to help push planting progress. This makes this the 7th straight sessions that wheat has closed lower.
On Thursday wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher. But by the end of the night all three were in the red. Technical buying from the need to correct an oversold market helped give wheat a firm start, but a very disappointing export sales estimate put the pressure back on wheat. To date wheat exports are running 33% behind last year’s pace and are the slowest exports on record for this time of year.
Although Russia played nice yesterday, last night they were back to bombing Ukraine. Rosario Grain is estimating Argentina wheat production for 2026 at 23.8 MMT up from 21 MMT previously. This makes this the 8th straight session that wheat has closed lower. As of Monday’s close, Dec Mpls has retraced over $1.24 from their Sept 2 high. A 50% retracement would take Dec to $7.32 while a 67% retracement would push to $7.53.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.57, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.45; Dec KC support is $6.89.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.415 down 35.0 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.25 down 35.5 cents, Dec KC was at $6.645 down 39.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments October 23
Wheat Weekly Comments October 23
Wheat started Monday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls steady, Chicago lower, KC higher). Technical buying helped to give wheat support early as wheat tried to bounce off lows not seen since Aug. But by midsession wheat turned lower due to spill over selling pressure from the lower corn market and soybean complex. Light selling was due to a very disappointing export inspections report (which is at its slowest pace in 3 years and is currently 36% below last year). News that Ukraine was talking to neighboring countries about allowing Ukraine to ship grains on their railroads added pressure. Light selling was tied to expectation that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting activity.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened steady to lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turned to trade with gains throughout the night. Early support came from Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed slow planting progress. Planting progress is estimated to be at the slowest pace on record and today is the last planting date for crop insurance purposes. But the lack of demand and recent heavy liquidation by the funds proved to be too much for the wheat exchanges to overcome. By midsession wheat had faded its gains and was trading in the red. This makes this the 8th straight session that wheat has closed lower.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended session losses early. Selling was tied to reports that Putin is asking for a meeting between Xi and Trump and himself and for the three to come up with an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, along with the war in Iran. The lack of export demand and fund selling added to the pressure. Selling was also tied to weather forecasts calling for favorable weather conditions to help push planting progress. This makes this the 7th straight sessions that wheat has closed lower.
On Thursday wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher. But by the end of the night all three were in the red. Technical buying from the need to correct an oversold market helped give wheat a firm start, but a very disappointing export sales estimate put the pressure back on wheat. To date wheat exports are running 33% behind last year’s pace and are the slowest exports on record for this time of year.
Although Russia played nice yesterday, last night they were back to bombing Ukraine. Rosario Grain is estimating Argentina wheat production for 2026 at 23.8 MMT up from 21 MMT previously. This makes this the 8th straight session that wheat has closed lower. As of Monday’s close, Dec Mpls has retraced over $1.24 from their Sept 2 high. A 50% retracement would take Dec to $7.32 while a 67% retracement would push to $7.53.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.57, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.45; Dec KC support is $6.89.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.415 down 35.0 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.25 down 35.5 cents, Dec KC was at $6.645 down 39.5 cents.