Corn opened Monday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night and into the day. Early selling was tied to expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good harvest progress, with many estimates expecting corn harvest to be at or ahead of the 5-year average pace. Losses expanded once the weekly crop inspections estimate was released as last week’s corn shipments pace was sharply below expected (but still holding onto the second fastest pace on record).
Heavy fund long liquidation was also evident as the COT report showed the funds have cut their net long position almost in half last week. In South American news, Safras and Merado is estimating Brazil’s first crop corn planting progress at 59% complete vs 55% last year, and vs 55% average. Dec corn broke through their report low of $4.7025, which if confirmed tomorrow with another lower close, could result in corn testing their next support line.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower but managed to firm and trade with small gains throughout the night session. Early support was due to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which showed a much slower than expected harvested pace and the slowest pace since 2019. A stronger crude oil market added support as Houthi rebels continue to stage attacks on Saudi Arabia. Dr Cordonnier released his production estimated for SA and the US today. Brazil’s corn production is estimated at 140 MMT, up 2 MMT previously, Argentina’s corn production is estimated at 60 MMT, unchanged from the previous estimated, US corn production estimate was unchanged. Technical selling combined with fund long liquidation to pressure corn late.
Corn opened lower and extended session losses throughout the night and start of the Wednesday’s day session. Early selling was tied to technical selling as most months are flirting with long term support. Light selling was tied to reports that Russia was becoming more willing to restart peace talks with Ukraine. Weather forecasts calling for favorable harvest weather added to the selling. But corn managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher late in the session due to technical buying as corn bounced off support.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.094 million barrels, up 29,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.56 million barrels, up 616,000 barrels from the previous week.
Corn opened Thursday’s session higher and traded with gains thought most of the night. Technical buying from traders trying to correct an oversold market condition helped give corn support early, but those gains faded once the small trader buying dried up around midsession. Light help came from last week’s export sales estimate, which was at the top of expectations. News that Russia orchestrated a massive attack on Ukraine overnight supported crude oil which also helped corn.
But the lack of follow-through buying pressure corn around midsession as once the small traders buying dried up, it was only the funds left selling. Rosario Grain left Argentina’s corn production estimate unchanged at 67.5 MMT. Dec corn has retraced about 82.75 cents from their Sept 2 high. A 50% retracement is at $5.085 while a 67% retracement is at $5.225.
Dec corn support is at $4.57.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.56 down 18.25 cents. Mar corn was at $4.7025 down 16.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments October 23
Corn Weekly Comments October 23
Corn opened Monday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night and into the day. Early selling was tied to expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good harvest progress, with many estimates expecting corn harvest to be at or ahead of the 5-year average pace. Losses expanded once the weekly crop inspections estimate was released as last week’s corn shipments pace was sharply below expected (but still holding onto the second fastest pace on record).
Heavy fund long liquidation was also evident as the COT report showed the funds have cut their net long position almost in half last week. In South American news, Safras and Merado is estimating Brazil’s first crop corn planting progress at 59% complete vs 55% last year, and vs 55% average. Dec corn broke through their report low of $4.7025, which if confirmed tomorrow with another lower close, could result in corn testing their next support line.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower but managed to firm and trade with small gains throughout the night session. Early support was due to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which showed a much slower than expected harvested pace and the slowest pace since 2019. A stronger crude oil market added support as Houthi rebels continue to stage attacks on Saudi Arabia. Dr Cordonnier released his production estimated for SA and the US today. Brazil’s corn production is estimated at 140 MMT, up 2 MMT previously, Argentina’s corn production is estimated at 60 MMT, unchanged from the previous estimated, US corn production estimate was unchanged. Technical selling combined with fund long liquidation to pressure corn late.
Corn opened lower and extended session losses throughout the night and start of the Wednesday’s day session. Early selling was tied to technical selling as most months are flirting with long term support. Light selling was tied to reports that Russia was becoming more willing to restart peace talks with Ukraine. Weather forecasts calling for favorable harvest weather added to the selling. But corn managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher late in the session due to technical buying as corn bounced off support.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.094 million barrels, up 29,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.56 million barrels, up 616,000 barrels from the previous week.
Corn opened Thursday’s session higher and traded with gains thought most of the night. Technical buying from traders trying to correct an oversold market condition helped give corn support early, but those gains faded once the small trader buying dried up around midsession. Light help came from last week’s export sales estimate, which was at the top of expectations. News that Russia orchestrated a massive attack on Ukraine overnight supported crude oil which also helped corn.
But the lack of follow-through buying pressure corn around midsession as once the small traders buying dried up, it was only the funds left selling. Rosario Grain left Argentina’s corn production estimate unchanged at 67.5 MMT. Dec corn has retraced about 82.75 cents from their Sept 2 high. A 50% retracement is at $5.085 while a 67% retracement is at $5.225.
Dec corn support is at $4.57.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.56 down 18.25 cents. Mar corn was at $4.7025 down 16.25 cents.