Cattle started the week off with gains and appeared to be ready to make a test of the next resistance level, but the recovery was interrupted by heavy selling pressure brought on by economic concerns. Cattle posted gains on Monday but then retreated the rest of the week. The expectation of a friendly COF report was not enough to help stabilize cattle.
Technical buying and improving cash bids helped to give cattle support to start the week. Cattle opened the week mixed with live cattle lower while feeder cattle started higher. Technical buying helped push cattle higher in the face of higher crude oil and lower stock market. At this point cattle have recovered about a third of their recent loss. This would be the level that should test the endurance of the recent longs. Technically feeder cattle look like they will push another $20 to hit the next level of resistance. Stronger cash offerings helped give cattle support.
Tuesday’s session saw cattle once again open mixed with live cattle higher while feeder cattle opened with losses. But both markets then slowly lost ground throughout the session and closed lower. Expectations for a higher cash trade helped give live cattle support early. A higher corn market pressured feeder cattle at the start. Both contracts were pressured by the outside markets as crude rallied higher while the Dow faded. Expectations that the Fed will be forced to increase interest rates Wednesday added pressure.
Wednesday’s session had cattle opening the session steady to lower in the live cattle market while feeder cattle opened steady to higher. The lack of a cash trade pressured live cattle early while a weaker grain complex supported feeder cattle. But feeder cattle could not hold their gains and faded into the red by midsession. Technical selling pulled cattle lower on Tuesday as traders wanted to test the holding power of the recent longs, and apparently, they failed the test as cattle faded lower. Light selling was due to position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report.
To close out the week ending Thursday, live cattle were briefly higher at the start of the session, but then slowly drifted lower the rest of the session and closed with losses. Feeder cattle saw gains early in the session but then, like live cattle, drifted lower and closed with losses. Pressure came from reports that USDA will reopen a border crossing in New Mexico to cattle from Mexico. Light selling was due to position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report.
The Sept COF report was bullish cattle as all categories came in below expectations. Two of the categories (Placements and Marketing) were at their lowest levels for August since the COF report began in 1996. The report estimated On Feed at 101% (1% below expectations), Placed at 91% (8% below expectations), and Marketing at 97% (1% above expectations). This would be friendly cattle.
As of Sept 13, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 19% g/e, 30% fair, and 51% p/vp, up 1% from the previous week.
For the week, Oct live cattle contracts closed at $215.925 down $3.75. Sept feeder cattle closed at $323.50 down $3.875.
Cattle Weekly Comments September 18
Cattle Weekly Comments September 18
Cattle started the week off with gains and appeared to be ready to make a test of the next resistance level, but the recovery was interrupted by heavy selling pressure brought on by economic concerns. Cattle posted gains on Monday but then retreated the rest of the week. The expectation of a friendly COF report was not enough to help stabilize cattle.
Technical buying and improving cash bids helped to give cattle support to start the week. Cattle opened the week mixed with live cattle lower while feeder cattle started higher. Technical buying helped push cattle higher in the face of higher crude oil and lower stock market. At this point cattle have recovered about a third of their recent loss. This would be the level that should test the endurance of the recent longs. Technically feeder cattle look like they will push another $20 to hit the next level of resistance. Stronger cash offerings helped give cattle support.
Tuesday’s session saw cattle once again open mixed with live cattle higher while feeder cattle opened with losses. But both markets then slowly lost ground throughout the session and closed lower. Expectations for a higher cash trade helped give live cattle support early. A higher corn market pressured feeder cattle at the start. Both contracts were pressured by the outside markets as crude rallied higher while the Dow faded. Expectations that the Fed will be forced to increase interest rates Wednesday added pressure.
Wednesday’s session had cattle opening the session steady to lower in the live cattle market while feeder cattle opened steady to higher. The lack of a cash trade pressured live cattle early while a weaker grain complex supported feeder cattle. But feeder cattle could not hold their gains and faded into the red by midsession. Technical selling pulled cattle lower on Tuesday as traders wanted to test the holding power of the recent longs, and apparently, they failed the test as cattle faded lower. Light selling was due to position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report.
To close out the week ending Thursday, live cattle were briefly higher at the start of the session, but then slowly drifted lower the rest of the session and closed with losses. Feeder cattle saw gains early in the session but then, like live cattle, drifted lower and closed with losses. Pressure came from reports that USDA will reopen a border crossing in New Mexico to cattle from Mexico. Light selling was due to position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report.
The Sept COF report was bullish cattle as all categories came in below expectations. Two of the categories (Placements and Marketing) were at their lowest levels for August since the COF report began in 1996. The report estimated On Feed at 101% (1% below expectations), Placed at 91% (8% below expectations), and Marketing at 97% (1% above expectations). This would be friendly cattle.
As of Sept 13, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 19% g/e, 30% fair, and 51% p/vp, up 1% from the previous week.
For the week, Oct live cattle contracts closed at $215.925 down $3.75. Sept feeder cattle closed at $323.50 down $3.875.