To start the week corn gapped higher on the opening bell and extended gains right out of the gate. Early support was due to weather forecasts calling for much above normal temps and dry conditions on the 1 to 5 day forecast and for above normal temps and hit and miss showers for the 6-to-10-day forecast. A sharply higher crude oil market added support. Friday’s COT report showing the funds are back as buyers in corn added support. An escalation in the Black Sea war also supported the US corn crop as it appears that Russia has successful knocked a major exporting hub for Ukraine offline. Friday’s friendly Crop Production estimate added support was US corn stocks, along with the world corn stocks estimate, shows little in the way of wiggle room. Gains were trimmed late due to updated weather forecasts calling for moderating temps in the 6 to 10 day.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a slightly better crop rating than expected. Light selling was also tied to weather forecasts showing a slight drop in temps in the 6-to-10-day forecast. CONAB is estimating Brail’s corn production at 141.7 MMT vs 140.5 MMT previously. Dr Cordonnier left his production estimate for corn in Argentina unchanged at 63 MMT and also left Brazil’s production unchanged at 139 MMT.
Losses were trimmed late in Tuesday’s session by reports that Brazil is looking to increase their ethanol blend from 30% to 32%, which will result in more of Brazil’s production to be used domestically. Traders will be watching weather forecast closely this week, as if the forecast holds and next week sees the heat moderate, then we could see corn and soybeans fade. But if the high-pressure ridge lingers, we could see another push higher in corn and soybeans.
On Wednesday corn opened lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to weather forecasts calling for moderating heat and chances for rain in the 6-to-10-day forecast. But once wheat rallied to post sharp gains, corn was pulled along. Light support also came from the early morning update which pulled some rain out of the forecast. Much above normal temps and below normal precip are expected to linger through the weekend in the Northern Plains and Corn Belt, and with the corn crop in pollination there is likely some damage done.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was slightly bearish corn, coming in at 1.04 million barrels, 53,000 barrels below the previous week and at a 10-week low. Stocks were also disappointing, coming in at 24.39 million, up 463,000 barrels above the previous week. Gas demand was steady.
In Thursday’s session corn opened lower but like wheat shook off the early selling pressure and rallied to post small gains by the end of the night. Pressure came from a slight change in the weather forecast, as the 6-to-10-day forecast showing moderating temps and a better chance for rain for the Corn Belt. Support came from bargain hunting as traders who have been sitting on the sideline saw an opportunity to go long. Selling returned to the corn market during the day session with selling once gains tied to improving weather forecasts. It did not appear that traders are completely convinced by the updated weather forecasts. The noon update for the 6-to-10-day forecast is calling for temps to moderate and for rain for the Corn Belt, but then heat is expected to return in the 11 to 15 day. Last week’s disappointing export sales estimated added pressure.
Sept corn support is $4.30. Dec corn support is at $4.50.
For the week, Sept corn was at $4.4475 up 5.25 cents. Dec corn was at $4.675 up 6.5 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments July 17
Corn Weekly Comments July 17
To start the week corn gapped higher on the opening bell and extended gains right out of the gate. Early support was due to weather forecasts calling for much above normal temps and dry conditions on the 1 to 5 day forecast and for above normal temps and hit and miss showers for the 6-to-10-day forecast. A sharply higher crude oil market added support. Friday’s COT report showing the funds are back as buyers in corn added support. An escalation in the Black Sea war also supported the US corn crop as it appears that Russia has successful knocked a major exporting hub for Ukraine offline. Friday’s friendly Crop Production estimate added support was US corn stocks, along with the world corn stocks estimate, shows little in the way of wiggle room. Gains were trimmed late due to updated weather forecasts calling for moderating temps in the 6 to 10 day.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a slightly better crop rating than expected. Light selling was also tied to weather forecasts showing a slight drop in temps in the 6-to-10-day forecast. CONAB is estimating Brail’s corn production at 141.7 MMT vs 140.5 MMT previously. Dr Cordonnier left his production estimate for corn in Argentina unchanged at 63 MMT and also left Brazil’s production unchanged at 139 MMT.
Losses were trimmed late in Tuesday’s session by reports that Brazil is looking to increase their ethanol blend from 30% to 32%, which will result in more of Brazil’s production to be used domestically. Traders will be watching weather forecast closely this week, as if the forecast holds and next week sees the heat moderate, then we could see corn and soybeans fade. But if the high-pressure ridge lingers, we could see another push higher in corn and soybeans.
On Wednesday corn opened lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to weather forecasts calling for moderating heat and chances for rain in the 6-to-10-day forecast. But once wheat rallied to post sharp gains, corn was pulled along. Light support also came from the early morning update which pulled some rain out of the forecast. Much above normal temps and below normal precip are expected to linger through the weekend in the Northern Plains and Corn Belt, and with the corn crop in pollination there is likely some damage done.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was slightly bearish corn, coming in at 1.04 million barrels, 53,000 barrels below the previous week and at a 10-week low. Stocks were also disappointing, coming in at 24.39 million, up 463,000 barrels above the previous week. Gas demand was steady.
In Thursday’s session corn opened lower but like wheat shook off the early selling pressure and rallied to post small gains by the end of the night. Pressure came from a slight change in the weather forecast, as the 6-to-10-day forecast showing moderating temps and a better chance for rain for the Corn Belt. Support came from bargain hunting as traders who have been sitting on the sideline saw an opportunity to go long. Selling returned to the corn market during the day session with selling once gains tied to improving weather forecasts. It did not appear that traders are completely convinced by the updated weather forecasts. The noon update for the 6-to-10-day forecast is calling for temps to moderate and for rain for the Corn Belt, but then heat is expected to return in the 11 to 15 day. Last week’s disappointing export sales estimated added pressure.
Sept corn support is $4.30. Dec corn support is at $4.50.
For the week, Sept corn was at $4.4475 up 5.25 cents. Dec corn was at $4.675 up 6.5 cents.