To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly trimmed those gains. The market spent the rest of the session on the higher side and closed with small gains. Early support came from the gains in the crude oil market as the ceasefire between the US and Iran has ended. Improving demand added support as USDA announced a sale of 136,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. Today was the 4th session in a row with a reported soybean sale to China. Hot and dry conditions throughout the Midwest also added to the gains. But gains were limited by updated forecasts that added rain for the Corn Belt in the 6-to-15-day forecast.
Monday’s crop progress report increased the soybean crop condition rating by 1% to 65% g/e. OH saw the biggest increase, up 9% to 63% g/e, followed by ND up 4% to 57% g/e, MN up 2% to 81% g/e, and KS up 2% to 69% g/e. Of the other major states, MO was down 4%, SD was down 3%, IL was down 2%, NE and IN were down 1% and IA was unchanged.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded on the lower side in a choppy session and closed with small losses. Pressure came from Monday afternoon’s crop progress report. Traders expected conditions to remain steady but instead the soybean rating increased 1% to 65% g/e. Updated forecasts that are a little cooler and wetter added pressure. CONAB slightly increased their estimate of Brazil’s production from 180.3 MMT to 180.6 MMT. The NOPA crush report will be released Wednesday morning. The average trade estimate for June crush is 204.0 MB. That would be 10% higher than last June if realized.
Soybeans were higher overnight, pulled back at the start of Wednesday’s day session but then recovered and closed with solid gains. Both the Aug and Nov contracts closed above $12.00 for the first time since May 19. Support came from a very friendly NOPA report. June crush came in at 214.3 MB, 10 MB higher than the average trade estimate and 29 MB higher than the prior record for June. Soybean oil stocks at 1.501 billion pounds were sharply lower than the average trade estimate of 1.653 billion pounds. Support also spilled over from the sharply higher wheat markets. Forecasts have been trending a bit cooler and wetter, but today’s updated forecasts have pulled some of the rain out.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in Thursday’s choppy session but lost ground in the day session and closed lower. Pressure came from forecasts for less heat, but the models differ on rain amounts. Technical selling added pressure. Losses were limited by improving demand for both exports and crush. Last week’s export sales for old crop at 6.9 MB were at the low end of the range of trade estimates. But new crop sales at 65.0 MB were higher than expected.
For the new crop marketing year, China has bought a total of 1.256 MMT and unknown destinations have bought 2.325 MMT. Assuming the unknown sales are to China, that brings China’s total new crop purchases to 3.581 MMT, still a long way from the 25.0 MMT China has promised to purchase.
Aug soybean support is $11.6375. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Aug soybeans were at $12.045 up 12.75 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.03 up 12.25 cents. Aug soybean meal was at $320.20 down 20 cents and Aug soybean oil was at $74.89 up $4.35.
Soybean Weekly Comments July 17
Soybean Weekly Comments July 17
To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly trimmed those gains. The market spent the rest of the session on the higher side and closed with small gains. Early support came from the gains in the crude oil market as the ceasefire between the US and Iran has ended. Improving demand added support as USDA announced a sale of 136,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. Today was the 4th session in a row with a reported soybean sale to China. Hot and dry conditions throughout the Midwest also added to the gains. But gains were limited by updated forecasts that added rain for the Corn Belt in the 6-to-15-day forecast.
Monday’s crop progress report increased the soybean crop condition rating by 1% to 65% g/e. OH saw the biggest increase, up 9% to 63% g/e, followed by ND up 4% to 57% g/e, MN up 2% to 81% g/e, and KS up 2% to 69% g/e. Of the other major states, MO was down 4%, SD was down 3%, IL was down 2%, NE and IN were down 1% and IA was unchanged.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded on the lower side in a choppy session and closed with small losses. Pressure came from Monday afternoon’s crop progress report. Traders expected conditions to remain steady but instead the soybean rating increased 1% to 65% g/e. Updated forecasts that are a little cooler and wetter added pressure. CONAB slightly increased their estimate of Brazil’s production from 180.3 MMT to 180.6 MMT. The NOPA crush report will be released Wednesday morning. The average trade estimate for June crush is 204.0 MB. That would be 10% higher than last June if realized.
Soybeans were higher overnight, pulled back at the start of Wednesday’s day session but then recovered and closed with solid gains. Both the Aug and Nov contracts closed above $12.00 for the first time since May 19. Support came from a very friendly NOPA report. June crush came in at 214.3 MB, 10 MB higher than the average trade estimate and 29 MB higher than the prior record for June. Soybean oil stocks at 1.501 billion pounds were sharply lower than the average trade estimate of 1.653 billion pounds. Support also spilled over from the sharply higher wheat markets. Forecasts have been trending a bit cooler and wetter, but today’s updated forecasts have pulled some of the rain out.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in Thursday’s choppy session but lost ground in the day session and closed lower. Pressure came from forecasts for less heat, but the models differ on rain amounts. Technical selling added pressure. Losses were limited by improving demand for both exports and crush. Last week’s export sales for old crop at 6.9 MB were at the low end of the range of trade estimates. But new crop sales at 65.0 MB were higher than expected.
For the new crop marketing year, China has bought a total of 1.256 MMT and unknown destinations have bought 2.325 MMT. Assuming the unknown sales are to China, that brings China’s total new crop purchases to 3.581 MMT, still a long way from the 25.0 MMT China has promised to purchase.
Aug soybean support is $11.6375. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Aug soybeans were at $12.045 up 12.75 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.03 up 12.25 cents. Aug soybean meal was at $320.20 down 20 cents and Aug soybean oil was at $74.89 up $4.35.