In Monday’s session soybeans opened lower but managed to trade with small losses throughout the night session. Early support came from two flash export sale announcements as China was in overnight and bought 114 TMT of US soybeans while an unknown destination was in and bought 261 TMT of US soybeans. Light support was also due to last week’s impressive export inspections estimate which came in sharply above expectations. At this point, soybean shipments are 27% ahead of last year at this time and are at the largest since Dec of 2024.
Gains were kept in check from expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show rapid planting activity for last week. Forecasts are also calling for open weather for this week, which should help push soybean harvest to near completion. Reports of record planting pace in Brazil added to the pressure. Safras and Merado are estimating soybean planting progress at 30% complete vs 22% last year and vs 19% average. Technically Nov soybean broke through support today.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but turned lower in Tuesday’s day session and closed about 5 cents lower. Harvest pressure and expectations of a big crop pressured soybeans. Fund selling added pressure. The nation’s soybean harvest is estimated at 64% complete, just 1% shy of the 5-year average of 65% as last week’s warmer and drier weather allowed harvest to catch up in most areas. But IA and NE are running quite a bit behind average pace. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 612,000 MT of soybeans to China. China held another auction of reserve soybeans yesterday to make room for US soybeans. Since late July 2.61 MMT has been sold out of the 4.39 MMT offered.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans saw small losses for the first part of the overnight session before losses accelerated late in the overnight session. But the market was able to trim losses in the day session and closed with just small losses. Harvest pressure and fund selling continued to weigh on the market. Pressure also spilled over from the sharply lower wheat markets. And once again, the market largely ignored export sales announcements. Today USDA reported sales of 134,000 MT of soybeans to China and 165,000 MT to Spain (the first non-China/unknown sale since July). There have been reported daily sales for 6 sessions in a row totaling 3.2 MMT. That is the largest amount for any week since Nov 2023.
On Thursday soybeans traded with small losses for the first half of the overnight session before turning higher. The market added to the gains in the day session to close with decent gains and ended the streak of 8 lower closes in a row. Support came from the gains in the crude oil market. Light support came from USDA’s report of a sale of 202,000 MT of soybeans to China. There have now been announced daily soybean sales for 7 sessions in a row. Support also came from the weekly export sales report. Last week’s sales were a marketing year high at 104.4 MB with 80.1 MB of that going to China. Marketing year-to-date sales now total 963 MB vs. 533 MB at the same time last year. But gains were limited by harvest pressure and strong yield reports. Rosario Grains Exchange estimates the upcoming Argentina soybean crop at 47.8 MMT vs. USDA’s current estimate of 50.0 MMT. Technically Nov soybean broke through support Monday. The Jan soybean contracts have lost close to 84.25 cents since hitting their recent contract high of $13.5025 on Sept 11. A 50% retracement would take Jan soybeans to $13.0825 while 67% is at $13.275.
Nov soybean support is at $12.37.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.565 down 4.75 cents while Jan soybeans were at $12.685 down 7.25 cents. Dec soybean meal at $346.10 down $11.00 and Dec soybean oil was at $66.83 down 30 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments October 23
Soybean Weekly Comments October 23
In Monday’s session soybeans opened lower but managed to trade with small losses throughout the night session. Early support came from two flash export sale announcements as China was in overnight and bought 114 TMT of US soybeans while an unknown destination was in and bought 261 TMT of US soybeans. Light support was also due to last week’s impressive export inspections estimate which came in sharply above expectations. At this point, soybean shipments are 27% ahead of last year at this time and are at the largest since Dec of 2024.
Gains were kept in check from expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show rapid planting activity for last week. Forecasts are also calling for open weather for this week, which should help push soybean harvest to near completion. Reports of record planting pace in Brazil added to the pressure. Safras and Merado are estimating soybean planting progress at 30% complete vs 22% last year and vs 19% average. Technically Nov soybean broke through support today.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but turned lower in Tuesday’s day session and closed about 5 cents lower. Harvest pressure and expectations of a big crop pressured soybeans. Fund selling added pressure. The nation’s soybean harvest is estimated at 64% complete, just 1% shy of the 5-year average of 65% as last week’s warmer and drier weather allowed harvest to catch up in most areas. But IA and NE are running quite a bit behind average pace. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 612,000 MT of soybeans to China. China held another auction of reserve soybeans yesterday to make room for US soybeans. Since late July 2.61 MMT has been sold out of the 4.39 MMT offered.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans saw small losses for the first part of the overnight session before losses accelerated late in the overnight session. But the market was able to trim losses in the day session and closed with just small losses. Harvest pressure and fund selling continued to weigh on the market. Pressure also spilled over from the sharply lower wheat markets. And once again, the market largely ignored export sales announcements. Today USDA reported sales of 134,000 MT of soybeans to China and 165,000 MT to Spain (the first non-China/unknown sale since July). There have been reported daily sales for 6 sessions in a row totaling 3.2 MMT. That is the largest amount for any week since Nov 2023.
On Thursday soybeans traded with small losses for the first half of the overnight session before turning higher. The market added to the gains in the day session to close with decent gains and ended the streak of 8 lower closes in a row. Support came from the gains in the crude oil market. Light support came from USDA’s report of a sale of 202,000 MT of soybeans to China. There have now been announced daily soybean sales for 7 sessions in a row. Support also came from the weekly export sales report. Last week’s sales were a marketing year high at 104.4 MB with 80.1 MB of that going to China. Marketing year-to-date sales now total 963 MB vs. 533 MB at the same time last year.
But gains were limited by harvest pressure and strong yield reports. Rosario Grains Exchange estimates the upcoming Argentina soybean crop at 47.8 MMT vs. USDA’s current estimate of 50.0 MMT. Technically Nov soybean broke through support Monday. The Jan soybean contracts have lost close to 84.25 cents since hitting their recent contract high of $13.5025 on Sept 11. A 50% retracement would take Jan soybeans to $13.0825 while 67% is at $13.275.
Nov soybean support is at $12.37.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.565 down 4.75 cents while Jan soybeans were at $12.685 down 7.25 cents. Dec soybean meal at $346.10 down $11.00 and Dec soybean oil was at $66.83 down 30 cents.