In Monday’s session corn opened lower but quickly recovered to trade with gains throughout the night. Early support spilled over from the higher soybean complex as well as from technical buying which set in after Dec corn bounced off $4.95 support. A strong export inspection estimate added support. Reports Mexico was in and bought 129.5 TMT of US corn added support. As of Oct 1, Argentina was reporting corn planting progress at 19% complete vs 13% last week and vs 14% average. Corn faded its gains after midsession with selling tied to expectations for the afternoon’s Crop Progress report to show solid harvest progress last week. Losses were kept in check by reports of quality concerns as the recent harvest delays as resulted in sprouting issues in the fields.
Corn opened higher in Tuesday’s session and continued to trade with gains throughout the session. Early support came from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Harvest progress was a lot slower than expected, coming in at 23% complete, which was only 5% higher than the previous week but 4% behind average and 3% below expectations. Support was also due to a lower-than-expected crop rating as corn conditions dropped 3% to 54% g/e. This was 3% below expectations. Dr Cordonnier left his US corn yield unchanged at 177 bu. An escalation in the Black Sea war added support as overnight 2 merchant vessels were struck by missiles, while in NATO waters. Technically today’s close in the Dec contract was friendly as Dec crossed over the $5.00 level. This opens up a test of the previous high.
On Wednesday corn opened the session higher but turned to trade lower soon after opening the session and continued to extend losses throughout the day. Early support spilled over from Tuesday’s strong performance. But the losses in wheat proved to be too much and spilled over to pull corn lower. Additional pressure came from hedge selling as weather forecasts show favorable harvest weather for a majority of the US. Technically no damage was done to the corn charts today.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.053 million barrels, up 46,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at23.74 million barrels, down 122,000 barrels below the previous week.
Corn opened steady and managed to trade with small gains throughout the night but faded those gains once Thursday’s day session started. Technical buying and profit taking teamed up with position squaring ahead of Friday’s Oct Crop Production report. A stronger US dollar pressured corn. Losses were kept in check by another escalation in the wars in the Black Sea report and Middle East, which helped to push crude oil sharply higher.
For old crop corn, we expect USDA will lower 2025 corn production 57 MB (due to lower harvest acreage), reduce corn for ethanol by 3 MB, and lower feed demand by 230 MB. Net, look for old crop stocks to increase about 176 MB. The wild card is what will USDA do to 2026 numbers? A drop of 1.5 to 2 bus will make a huge change to expectations. Estimates for tomorrow have corn’s yield at 177.7 bus vs 178.5 bus last month and production at 15.72 BB vs 15.8 BB last month. Stocks are estimated at 1.67 BB vs 1.57 BB last month.
Dec corn support is at $4.95.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.7975 down 18.0 cents. Mar corn was at $4.9425 down 17.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments October 9
Corn Weekly Comments October 9
In Monday’s session corn opened lower but quickly recovered to trade with gains throughout the night. Early support spilled over from the higher soybean complex as well as from technical buying which set in after Dec corn bounced off $4.95 support. A strong export inspection estimate added support. Reports Mexico was in and bought 129.5 TMT of US corn added support. As of Oct 1, Argentina was reporting corn planting progress at 19% complete vs 13% last week and vs 14% average. Corn faded its gains after midsession with selling tied to expectations for the afternoon’s Crop Progress report to show solid harvest progress last week. Losses were kept in check by reports of quality concerns as the recent harvest delays as resulted in sprouting issues in the fields.
Corn opened higher in Tuesday’s session and continued to trade with gains throughout the session. Early support came from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Harvest progress was a lot slower than expected, coming in at 23% complete, which was only 5% higher than the previous week but 4% behind average and 3% below expectations. Support was also due to a lower-than-expected crop rating as corn conditions dropped 3% to 54% g/e. This was 3% below expectations. Dr Cordonnier left his US corn yield unchanged at 177 bu. An escalation in the Black Sea war added support as overnight 2 merchant vessels were struck by missiles, while in NATO waters. Technically today’s close in the Dec contract was friendly as Dec crossed over the $5.00 level. This opens up a test of the previous high.
On Wednesday corn opened the session higher but turned to trade lower soon after opening the session and continued to extend losses throughout the day. Early support spilled over from Tuesday’s strong performance. But the losses in wheat proved to be too much and spilled over to pull corn lower. Additional pressure came from hedge selling as weather forecasts show favorable harvest weather for a majority of the US. Technically no damage was done to the corn charts today.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.053 million barrels, up 46,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at23.74 million barrels, down 122,000 barrels below the previous week.
Corn opened steady and managed to trade with small gains throughout the night but faded those gains once Thursday’s day session started. Technical buying and profit taking teamed up with position squaring ahead of Friday’s Oct Crop Production report. A stronger US dollar pressured corn. Losses were kept in check by another escalation in the wars in the Black Sea report and Middle East, which helped to push crude oil sharply higher.
For old crop corn, we expect USDA will lower 2025 corn production 57 MB (due to lower harvest acreage), reduce corn for ethanol by 3 MB, and lower feed demand by 230 MB. Net, look for old crop stocks to increase about 176 MB. The wild card is what will USDA do to 2026 numbers? A drop of 1.5 to 2 bus will make a huge change to expectations. Estimates for tomorrow have corn’s yield at 177.7 bus vs 178.5 bus last month and production at 15.72 BB vs 15.8 BB last month. Stocks are estimated at 1.67 BB vs 1.57 BB last month.
Dec corn support is at $4.95.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.7975 down 18.0 cents. Mar corn was at $4.9425 down 17.25 cents.