In Monday’s session wheat opened steady in the winter wheat exchanges and lower in Mpls. Early selling was tied to last week’s disappointing performance not only on the board but also with exports. But spillover support from the recovery in the soybeans and corn helped wheat shake off the early selling pressure. Light support came from a slightly better than expected export shipments pace. Another escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia added support as neither side appears ready to talk about a ceasefire. Reports that Saudi Arabia was in and bought 683 TMT optional origin wheat helped to add support. Gains were kept in check by the expectation of an increase in winter wheat acres.
On Tuesday wheat opened with each of the exchanges going in their own direction on Tuesday (Mpls lower, Chicago higher, KC steady). By the time the night session was ending all three were posting gains. Buying spilled over into the day session with most of the early support coming from Monday’s Crop Progress report. The report is only estimating winter wheat planting progress at a disappointing 36%, up only 9% from last week but still 10% below last year. The only states above the average planting pace are CA, OR, and WA. Light support came from an escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia as reports have 2 merchant ships getting hit by missiles overnight in the Black Sea. Rumors have it was Russia missiles that struck a ship that was in NATO waters, which has the potential to create much bigger issues.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower in all three exchanged and continued to extend losses throughout the night and into the day session. Selling was tied to profit taking ahead of Friday’s reports. The fact that US demand has not picked up while two of the largest exports are out of the export market continues to weigh on wheat. SovEcon is estimating wheat exports at 87.5 MMT vs 88.2 MMT previously. Technically wheat held above major support.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges higher while Mpls opened lower and that is how the grains traded throughout the night. Selling pressure took charge once the day session started with pressure coming from another firm session in the dollar (which rallied to 18-month highs). Losses were kept in check by reports that Taiwan was in and bought 106 TMT of US milling wheat. Pressure was also due to weather forecasts calling for rain over the weekend, but then warmer drier conditions are expected to return, which will allow for planting progress to gear back up.
Estimates for Friday’s Oct Crop Production have US wheat stocks at 721 MB vs 717 MB previously. World ending stocks are estimated at 276.6 MMT vs 276.3 MMT last month.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.75, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.65; Dec KC support is $7.15.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.9525 down 2.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.71 down 12.0 cents, Dec KC was at $7.1925 down 16.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments October 9
Wheat Weekly Comments October 9
In Monday’s session wheat opened steady in the winter wheat exchanges and lower in Mpls. Early selling was tied to last week’s disappointing performance not only on the board but also with exports. But spillover support from the recovery in the soybeans and corn helped wheat shake off the early selling pressure. Light support came from a slightly better than expected export shipments pace. Another escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia added support as neither side appears ready to talk about a ceasefire. Reports that Saudi Arabia was in and bought 683 TMT optional origin wheat helped to add support. Gains were kept in check by the expectation of an increase in winter wheat acres.
On Tuesday wheat opened with each of the exchanges going in their own direction on Tuesday (Mpls lower, Chicago higher, KC steady). By the time the night session was ending all three were posting gains. Buying spilled over into the day session with most of the early support coming from Monday’s Crop Progress report. The report is only estimating winter wheat planting progress at a disappointing 36%, up only 9% from last week but still 10% below last year. The only states above the average planting pace are CA, OR, and WA. Light support came from an escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia as reports have 2 merchant ships getting hit by missiles overnight in the Black Sea. Rumors have it was Russia missiles that struck a ship that was in NATO waters, which has the potential to create much bigger issues.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower in all three exchanged and continued to extend losses throughout the night and into the day session. Selling was tied to profit taking ahead of Friday’s reports. The fact that US demand has not picked up while two of the largest exports are out of the export market continues to weigh on wheat. SovEcon is estimating wheat exports at 87.5 MMT vs 88.2 MMT previously. Technically wheat held above major support.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges higher while Mpls opened lower and that is how the grains traded throughout the night. Selling pressure took charge once the day session started with pressure coming from another firm session in the dollar (which rallied to 18-month highs). Losses were kept in check by reports that Taiwan was in and bought 106 TMT of US milling wheat. Pressure was also due to weather forecasts calling for rain over the weekend, but then warmer drier conditions are expected to return, which will allow for planting progress to gear back up.
Estimates for Friday’s Oct Crop Production have US wheat stocks at 721 MB vs 717 MB previously. World ending stocks are estimated at 276.6 MMT vs 276.3 MMT last month.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.75, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.65; Dec KC support is $7.15.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.9525 down 2.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.71 down 12.0 cents, Dec KC was at $7.1925 down 16.0 cents.