To start the week soybeans opened lower and traded with losses throughout the session, although soybeans did trim losses going into the close. Early selling was tied to reports that Brazil’s planting progress was close to 20% complete vs 12% average. This is one of the fastest planting paces for Brazil. The lack of news due to today being a government holiday added pressure. Traders were expecting a flash export sale announcement once China came off Golden Week last Thursday but instead, they are still waiting. A stronger crude oil market helped support soybeans and soybean oil late.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened lower and continued to trade on the defense throughout the overnight session and into the day session. Selling was once again tied to a near record planting pace being seen in Brazil. Losses were trimmed by the news that EPA will reallocate 100% of the biofuel volumes lost to 2025 small refinery exemptions. This was friendly soybean oil and soybeans due to renewable diesel fuel. But selling returned late in the session due to disappointing that China has returned to purchase more soybeans since returning from Golden Week. Expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show solid harvest activity added pressure. Ukraine is estimating their soybean harvest progress at 73% complete.
Soybeans were higher overnight but lost ground in Wednesday’s day session and closed with losses. Overnight support came from rumors that China bought 8 to 10 cargoes of US soybeans. That was confirmed this morning with USDA’s report of a sale of 470,000 MT of soybeans to China. This is the first sale since the Trump/Xi meeting on Sept 24. But with a lack of any other fresh news, soybeans faded in the day session.
Expectations that harvest progress will get back to average pace this week added pressure. Dr Cordonnier increased his US soybean yield estimate by 1.6 bu. to 53.1 bu., right in line with USDA’s current estimate. China will hold their next auction of reserve soybeans on Oct 20 with 504,000 MT to be offered.
Soybeans spent Thursday’s session on the lower side with losses accelerating in the day session. The market closed with double-digit losses. Soybeans ignored today’s positive. The market seemed to focus instead on ideas that this year’s crop will set a new record for production. Losses accelerated when the NOPA crush report was released at 11 am. Sept crush came in at 196.3 MB, sharply lower than the average trade estimate of 203.7 MB and even lower than last Sept’s 197.9 MB.
This was the first time in 18 months that crush did not exceed last year’s amount, mostly due to the slow harvest pace in the western Corn Belt. Soybean oil stocks at 1.053 billion pounds were lower than the average trade estimate of 1.116 billion pounds. CONAB left their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production unchanged at 181.6 MMT vs. 180.5 MMT last year. They estimate acres increasing 1.4% and yield down 0.8% from last year.
Nov soybean support is at $12.37.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.6125 down 30.75 cents while Jan soybeans were at $12.7575 down 32.5 cents. Dec soybean meal at $357.10 down $8.50 and Dec soybean oil was at $67.13 down 89 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments October 16
Soybean Weekly Comments October 16
To start the week soybeans opened lower and traded with losses throughout the session, although soybeans did trim losses going into the close. Early selling was tied to reports that Brazil’s planting progress was close to 20% complete vs 12% average. This is one of the fastest planting paces for Brazil. The lack of news due to today being a government holiday added pressure. Traders were expecting a flash export sale announcement once China came off Golden Week last Thursday but instead, they are still waiting. A stronger crude oil market helped support soybeans and soybean oil late.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened lower and continued to trade on the defense throughout the overnight session and into the day session. Selling was once again tied to a near record planting pace being seen in Brazil. Losses were trimmed by the news that EPA will reallocate 100% of the biofuel volumes lost to 2025 small refinery exemptions. This was friendly soybean oil and soybeans due to renewable diesel fuel. But selling returned late in the session due to disappointing that China has returned to purchase more soybeans since returning from Golden Week. Expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show solid harvest activity added pressure. Ukraine is estimating their soybean harvest progress at 73% complete.
Soybeans were higher overnight but lost ground in Wednesday’s day session and closed with losses. Overnight support came from rumors that China bought 8 to 10 cargoes of US soybeans. That was confirmed this morning with USDA’s report of a sale of 470,000 MT of soybeans to China. This is the first sale since the Trump/Xi meeting on Sept 24. But with a lack of any other fresh news, soybeans faded in the day session.
Expectations that harvest progress will get back to average pace this week added pressure. Dr Cordonnier increased his US soybean yield estimate by 1.6 bu. to 53.1 bu., right in line with USDA’s current estimate. China will hold their next auction of reserve soybeans on Oct 20 with 504,000 MT to be offered.
Soybeans spent Thursday’s session on the lower side with losses accelerating in the day session. The market closed with double-digit losses. Soybeans ignored today’s positive. The market seemed to focus instead on ideas that this year’s crop will set a new record for production. Losses accelerated when the NOPA crush report was released at 11 am. Sept crush came in at 196.3 MB, sharply lower than the average trade estimate of 203.7 MB and even lower than last Sept’s 197.9 MB.
This was the first time in 18 months that crush did not exceed last year’s amount, mostly due to the slow harvest pace in the western Corn Belt. Soybean oil stocks at 1.053 billion pounds were lower than the average trade estimate of 1.116 billion pounds. CONAB left their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production unchanged at 181.6 MMT vs. 180.5 MMT last year. They estimate acres increasing 1.4% and yield down 0.8% from last year.
Nov soybean support is at $12.37.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.6125 down 30.75 cents while Jan soybeans were at $12.7575 down 32.5 cents. Dec soybean meal at $357.10 down $8.50 and Dec soybean oil was at $67.13 down 89 cents.