In Monday’s session corn opened higher and continued to trade with small gains throughout the night. Early support came from thoughts that Friday’s sell off was too much. Support was also due to reports of another failed attempt of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. One good thing from Friday, corn set a new all time record for trading volume. Reports Trump has made a deal with Russia to help supply the US with crude oil and diesel fuel has been reached over the weekend but has already hit a snag as it will take a vote from Congress to approve since Congress had just passed a law making it illegal to import fuel from Russia.
Gains were trimmed by reports that China is looking at their corn demand to slip to 306.9 MMT vs 311.7 MMT last year. Losses were overtaken by reports that Ukraine’s corn production will be lowered to 31.8 MMT instead to 32.3 MMT previously. Reports having the EU needing to import another 7 MMT of corn to meet demand.
On Tuesday corn opened steady but faded its gains to trade with losses throughout the night. Buying returned at the start of the day session, pushing corn to post solid gains. Early selling was tied to concerns about the remaining 2025 small refinery exemptions, but like the previous round of exempts, EPA will reallocate 100% of the biofuel volumes lost from the 2025 small refinery exemptions and transfer them to either 2027 or 2028. Strength was also due to reports that France’s corn production will decline over 27% to 7.3 MMT.
An escalation in the wars added support as Rusia continues to attack Ukraine. Even the US and Iran continue to see issues and that has resulted in Houthis to continue to keep pressure on Saudia Arabia. BAGE is estimating Argentina’s corn planting at 13% complete. Ukraine is estimating corn harvest at 13%. The trade is not buying into Friday’s USDA yield increase mainly due to the lower crop ratings for corn the past month to 6 weeks.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended losses throughout the night and into the day session but was able to trim the losses a bit later in the day session to close with small losses. Early pressure was due to a surprising 2% increase in corn’s crop condition rating, but then again, USDA has to convince the industry corn’s yield is 2.7 bus higher than last month.
Part of the Oct yield increase was due to USDA relying more on satellite imagery than actual field surveys, but the likely cause of the increase was due to the 11 bus increase in NE yield. According to reports, the Sept yield estimate for NE was comprised of 90% non-irrigated corn and 10% irrigated corn. The Oct survey was down using the opposite 90% irrigated and 10% non-irrigated. Obviously, a majority of the corn in NE is irrigated so one could see how flawed the initial survey was, but then again USDA has eliminated most with seniority.
Dr Cordonnier jumped on the band wagon this week as well, increasing his US corn yield 3 bus to 180 bus. Concern is starting to mount about the development of El Nino. Australia is reporting ocean temps at their highest level in years. In an El Nino year Argentina and southern Brazil see good rains, but northern and central Brazil remains on the drier side. It also results in a mild winter for the Northern Plains. If realized this could charge the grains up this winter. Technical corn remains above support.
In Thursday’s session corn opened higher but traded steady throughout most of the overnight session. Technical buying helped to give cattle support early. Gains were trimmed by harvest pressure and hedge selling. Corn managed to shake off late session selling due to spillover support from the higher wheat complex only to fade late in the session and closed with small losses. An escalation in the war added support as shipping logistic issues will continue to disrupt the flow of grain. Gains were kept in check by a report from CONAB that is estimating Brazil’s corn acreage will increase 5% and production could hit 148 MMT, up 2% vs last year.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.065 million barrels, up 12.000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.94 million barrels, up 199,000 barrels from the previous week. Production was below expectations and stocks were above expectations.
Dec corn support is at $4.57.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.7425 down 5.5 cents. Mar corn was at $4.865 down 7.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments October 16
Corn Weekly Comments October 16
In Monday’s session corn opened higher and continued to trade with small gains throughout the night. Early support came from thoughts that Friday’s sell off was too much. Support was also due to reports of another failed attempt of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. One good thing from Friday, corn set a new all time record for trading volume. Reports Trump has made a deal with Russia to help supply the US with crude oil and diesel fuel has been reached over the weekend but has already hit a snag as it will take a vote from Congress to approve since Congress had just passed a law making it illegal to import fuel from Russia.
Gains were trimmed by reports that China is looking at their corn demand to slip to 306.9 MMT vs 311.7 MMT last year. Losses were overtaken by reports that Ukraine’s corn production will be lowered to 31.8 MMT instead to 32.3 MMT previously. Reports having the EU needing to import another 7 MMT of corn to meet demand.
On Tuesday corn opened steady but faded its gains to trade with losses throughout the night. Buying returned at the start of the day session, pushing corn to post solid gains. Early selling was tied to concerns about the remaining 2025 small refinery exemptions, but like the previous round of exempts, EPA will reallocate 100% of the biofuel volumes lost from the 2025 small refinery exemptions and transfer them to either 2027 or 2028. Strength was also due to reports that France’s corn production will decline over 27% to 7.3 MMT.
An escalation in the wars added support as Rusia continues to attack Ukraine. Even the US and Iran continue to see issues and that has resulted in Houthis to continue to keep pressure on Saudia Arabia. BAGE is estimating Argentina’s corn planting at 13% complete. Ukraine is estimating corn harvest at 13%. The trade is not buying into Friday’s USDA yield increase mainly due to the lower crop ratings for corn the past month to 6 weeks.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended losses throughout the night and into the day session but was able to trim the losses a bit later in the day session to close with small losses. Early pressure was due to a surprising 2% increase in corn’s crop condition rating, but then again, USDA has to convince the industry corn’s yield is 2.7 bus higher than last month.
Part of the Oct yield increase was due to USDA relying more on satellite imagery than actual field surveys, but the likely cause of the increase was due to the 11 bus increase in NE yield. According to reports, the Sept yield estimate for NE was comprised of 90% non-irrigated corn and 10% irrigated corn. The Oct survey was down using the opposite 90% irrigated and 10% non-irrigated. Obviously, a majority of the corn in NE is irrigated so one could see how flawed the initial survey was, but then again USDA has eliminated most with seniority.
Dr Cordonnier jumped on the band wagon this week as well, increasing his US corn yield 3 bus to 180 bus. Concern is starting to mount about the development of El Nino. Australia is reporting ocean temps at their highest level in years. In an El Nino year Argentina and southern Brazil see good rains, but northern and central Brazil remains on the drier side. It also results in a mild winter for the Northern Plains. If realized this could charge the grains up this winter. Technical corn remains above support.
In Thursday’s session corn opened higher but traded steady throughout most of the overnight session. Technical buying helped to give cattle support early. Gains were trimmed by harvest pressure and hedge selling. Corn managed to shake off late session selling due to spillover support from the higher wheat complex only to fade late in the session and closed with small losses. An escalation in the war added support as shipping logistic issues will continue to disrupt the flow of grain. Gains were kept in check by a report from CONAB that is estimating Brazil’s corn acreage will increase 5% and production could hit 148 MMT, up 2% vs last year.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.065 million barrels, up 12.000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.94 million barrels, up 199,000 barrels from the previous week. Production was below expectations and stocks were above expectations.
Dec corn support is at $4.57.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.7425 down 5.5 cents. Mar corn was at $4.865 down 7.75 cents.