In Monday’s session soybeans drifted lower throughout the session and closed sharply lower. Pressure came from news that soybeans were left off the list of goods that China removed tariffs from. China did remove tariffs on US wheat, corn, sorghum, soybean oil, and soybean meal, among other “non-sensitive” goods. It’s likely the soybean tariffs are a bargaining chip that China wants to hold on to. Removing the tariffs on soybeans would have made US soybeans more attractive to private Chinese companies. So far, state owned Sinograin and COFCO have been the only buyers of US soybeans in this marketing year.
Rains that have slowed down harvest trimmed the losses a bit. That was reflected in the afternoon’s crop progress report as harvest was just 17% complete vs. the average trade estimate of 20% complete. The one bright spot today was last week’s export shipments report. Soybean shipments were above the range of trade estimates and marketing year-to-date shipments are running 26% above last year’s pace. In South American news, Brazil’s soybean planting is 4% complete vs. 4% average.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher in Tuesday’s day session to close with solid gains. Support came from ideas that Monday’s 30 cent losses were overdone. Rains that are slowing harvest pace added support as nationwide soybean harvest is 17% complete, 3% less than traders expected. However, the 6 to 10 and 11-to-15-day forecasts look to be warmer and drier. Positioning ahead of Wednesday’s reports, end of month, and end of quarter was also supportive.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, saw the session highs when the reports came out at 11 am but then faded and closed with small losses. Early support came from USDA’s report a sale of 105,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. Today’s report was neutral to friendly for soybeans. USDA lowered 2025/26 production by 1 MB to 4.261 BB. The trade expected to see production left unchanged. USDA estimated Sept 1 grain stocks at 315 MB, 10 MB lower than last year and 9 MB lower than the trade expected. 2025/26 production was lowered 1 MB while residual was increased 9 MB. Stocks were 71% off farm and 29% on farm. But soybeans couldn’t overcome the pressure from the steep losses in the corn and winter wheat markets.
On Thursday soybeans opened lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout most of the overnight session. Losses were trimmed once the export sales report was released as last week’s export sales pace was solid at 38 MB. But soybeans expanded their selling into the day session with selling being tied to hedge selling as it appears that harvest pace should pick up this weekend due to favorable weather forecasts. Soybean meal has been the bright spot in the soybean complex lately due to crush plants being short bought as they aggressively look to buy soybeans to crush so that they can start to make commitments. Technical selling was also evident in soybeans as weak longs continued to lift positions once soybeans closed below $13.00. The Aug Crush estimate came in at 209.6 MB slightly below expectations of 210.5 MB, but still a record for the month.
Nov soybean support is at $12.37.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.7825 down 40.75 cents while Jan soybeans were at $12.945 down 38.0 cents. Dec soybean meal at $347.50 down $23.50 and Dec soybean oil was at $68.62 up 78 cents.
For the month, Nov soybeans were up 5.0 cents while Jan soybeans were up 6.0 cents. Dec soybean meal up $11.60 and Dec soybean oil was down $2.84.
Soybean Weekly Comments October 2
Soybean Weekly Comments October 2
In Monday’s session soybeans drifted lower throughout the session and closed sharply lower. Pressure came from news that soybeans were left off the list of goods that China removed tariffs from. China did remove tariffs on US wheat, corn, sorghum, soybean oil, and soybean meal, among other “non-sensitive” goods. It’s likely the soybean tariffs are a bargaining chip that China wants to hold on to. Removing the tariffs on soybeans would have made US soybeans more attractive to private Chinese companies. So far, state owned Sinograin and COFCO have been the only buyers of US soybeans in this marketing year.
Rains that have slowed down harvest trimmed the losses a bit. That was reflected in the afternoon’s crop progress report as harvest was just 17% complete vs. the average trade estimate of 20% complete. The one bright spot today was last week’s export shipments report. Soybean shipments were above the range of trade estimates and marketing year-to-date shipments are running 26% above last year’s pace. In South American news, Brazil’s soybean planting is 4% complete vs. 4% average.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher in Tuesday’s day session to close with solid gains. Support came from ideas that Monday’s 30 cent losses were overdone. Rains that are slowing harvest pace added support as nationwide soybean harvest is 17% complete, 3% less than traders expected. However, the 6 to 10 and 11-to-15-day forecasts look to be warmer and drier. Positioning ahead of Wednesday’s reports, end of month, and end of quarter was also supportive.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, saw the session highs when the reports came out at 11 am but then faded and closed with small losses. Early support came from USDA’s report a sale of 105,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. Today’s report was neutral to friendly for soybeans. USDA lowered 2025/26 production by 1 MB to 4.261 BB. The trade expected to see production left unchanged. USDA estimated Sept 1 grain stocks at 315 MB, 10 MB lower than last year and 9 MB lower than the trade expected. 2025/26 production was lowered 1 MB while residual was increased 9 MB. Stocks were 71% off farm and 29% on farm. But soybeans couldn’t overcome the pressure from the steep losses in the corn and winter wheat markets.
On Thursday soybeans opened lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout most of the overnight session. Losses were trimmed once the export sales report was released as last week’s export sales pace was solid at 38 MB. But soybeans expanded their selling into the day session with selling being tied to hedge selling as it appears that harvest pace should pick up this weekend due to favorable weather forecasts. Soybean meal has been the bright spot in the soybean complex lately due to crush plants being short bought as they aggressively look to buy soybeans to crush so that they can start to make commitments. Technical selling was also evident in soybeans as weak longs continued to lift positions once soybeans closed below $13.00. The Aug Crush estimate came in at 209.6 MB slightly below expectations of 210.5 MB, but still a record for the month.
Nov soybean support is at $12.37.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $12.7825 down 40.75 cents while Jan soybeans were at $12.945 down 38.0 cents. Dec soybean meal at $347.50 down $23.50 and Dec soybean oil was at $68.62 up 78 cents.
For the month, Nov soybeans were up 5.0 cents while Jan soybeans were up 6.0 cents. Dec soybean meal up $11.60 and Dec soybean oil was down $2.84.