In Monday’s session corn opened higher but faded to post heavy losses by the end of the night. Early support was due to reports that China had put corn on the list of non-sensitive goods, which in turn gives corn favorable tariffs. Gains were trimmed by spill over pressure from a sharply lower soybean complex and a pullback in wheat. Reports that Russia was starting to export product out of the Baltic added pressure. Forecasts calling for rain for a majority of the Plains and Corn Belt for the next 5 days helped to limit session losses late. Reports of sprout damage in fields are starting to filter into the market. Losses were also trimmed by a strong export inspections estimate, which has corn shipments at their strongest pace in 10 years.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to trade close to steady throughout the overnight session. Technical buying helped give corn support early but the tug of war between the lower wheat complex and higher soybean complex kept corn traders honest. Traders are starting to realize that the China summit was actually friendly to corn as corn made it on the tariff reduction list, but those hopes had a wet blanket thrown on them as it doesn’t matter what the tariff is if you aren’t interested in buying the product and China has not been interested in buying US corn. The continued escalation of the two wars is adding light support to corn as the war continues to disrupt the shipping world.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened steady but shook off the early pressure to push and trade with small gains throughout the night and start of the day session. Technical buying combined with last-minute position squaring ahead of today reports to add support. But the trade was not expecting what came in the report as corn stocks were much higher than expected by the trade.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate put corn stocks at 2.095 BB, which was 177 MB above expectations, 544 MB above last year and 90 MB above the highest trade estimate for the report. How did USDA get there? Corn production for 2025 was estimated at 18.545 BB, which was 39 MB below expectations and 57 MB below last month. The production was trimmed due to a 75,000 acre cut to planted acreage and a 310,000-acreage cut to harvested acreage. On the demand side, USDA trimmed feed and residual demand 230 MB, which in turn increased stocks. This was not expected by the trade and why corn took such a hit today.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.007 million barrels, down 21,000 from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.87 million barrels, down 818,000 barrels from the previous week.
Corn opened Thursday’s session higher and traded with gains during the overnight. Technical buying and expectations that Wednesday’s losses were overdone helped corn bounce. But the gains were short lived as once the day session started, selling pressure returned, pushing corn to test support. Wednesday’s sell off was brutal to corn as it pushed corn through their first level of support ($5.10) and today the market is testing major support ($4.95). Last week’s disappointing export sales report added pressure as last week’s pace was a new marketing year low.
Now the market will be looking forward to Oct 9 Crop Production estimate, which will likely come with a yield cut (which could offset Wednesday’s cut in demand). Hedge selling added pressure late in the session as weather forecasts are calling for good harvest weather for the next 15 days. Like wheat, corn managed to bounce higher into the close.
Dec corn support is at $4.95.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.9775 down 30.5 cents. Mar corn was at $5.115 down 30.5 cents.
For the month, Dec corn was down 37.0 cents. Mar corn was down 36.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments October 2
Corn Weekly Comments October 2
In Monday’s session corn opened higher but faded to post heavy losses by the end of the night. Early support was due to reports that China had put corn on the list of non-sensitive goods, which in turn gives corn favorable tariffs. Gains were trimmed by spill over pressure from a sharply lower soybean complex and a pullback in wheat. Reports that Russia was starting to export product out of the Baltic added pressure. Forecasts calling for rain for a majority of the Plains and Corn Belt for the next 5 days helped to limit session losses late. Reports of sprout damage in fields are starting to filter into the market. Losses were also trimmed by a strong export inspections estimate, which has corn shipments at their strongest pace in 10 years.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to trade close to steady throughout the overnight session. Technical buying helped give corn support early but the tug of war between the lower wheat complex and higher soybean complex kept corn traders honest. Traders are starting to realize that the China summit was actually friendly to corn as corn made it on the tariff reduction list, but those hopes had a wet blanket thrown on them as it doesn’t matter what the tariff is if you aren’t interested in buying the product and China has not been interested in buying US corn. The continued escalation of the two wars is adding light support to corn as the war continues to disrupt the shipping world.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened steady but shook off the early pressure to push and trade with small gains throughout the night and start of the day session. Technical buying combined with last-minute position squaring ahead of today reports to add support. But the trade was not expecting what came in the report as corn stocks were much higher than expected by the trade.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate put corn stocks at 2.095 BB, which was 177 MB above expectations, 544 MB above last year and 90 MB above the highest trade estimate for the report. How did USDA get there? Corn production for 2025 was estimated at 18.545 BB, which was 39 MB below expectations and 57 MB below last month. The production was trimmed due to a 75,000 acre cut to planted acreage and a 310,000-acreage cut to harvested acreage. On the demand side, USDA trimmed feed and residual demand 230 MB, which in turn increased stocks. This was not expected by the trade and why corn took such a hit today.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.007 million barrels, down 21,000 from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.87 million barrels, down 818,000 barrels from the previous week.
Corn opened Thursday’s session higher and traded with gains during the overnight. Technical buying and expectations that Wednesday’s losses were overdone helped corn bounce. But the gains were short lived as once the day session started, selling pressure returned, pushing corn to test support. Wednesday’s sell off was brutal to corn as it pushed corn through their first level of support ($5.10) and today the market is testing major support ($4.95). Last week’s disappointing export sales report added pressure as last week’s pace was a new marketing year low.
Now the market will be looking forward to Oct 9 Crop Production estimate, which will likely come with a yield cut (which could offset Wednesday’s cut in demand). Hedge selling added pressure late in the session as weather forecasts are calling for good harvest weather for the next 15 days. Like wheat, corn managed to bounce higher into the close.
Dec corn support is at $4.95.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.9775 down 30.5 cents. Mar corn was at $5.115 down 30.5 cents.
For the month, Dec corn was down 37.0 cents. Mar corn was down 36.75 cents.