To start the week wheat opened lower across the board but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher by the end of the night session. Pressure was due to the lack of news. Today is a government holiday, which has all USDA reports delayed a day. Light selling was also tied to rumors of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, but that lasted as long as it took to say ceasefire. Trump announced the ceasefire last night, but Russia broke the deal when it attacked an energy site in the Ukraine overnight. Losses were trimmed by reports IKAR lower their production estimate for Russia to 88.0 MMT vs 88.5 MMT previously. On the other hand, APK Inform increased their production estimate for Ukraine from 25.0 MMT to 25.5 MMT.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). By the end of the night all three were posting losses. Selling was tied to rumors that Russia was in favor of an energy ceasefire, but Ukraine broke the agreement. Seems odd since it was Russia that sank another cargo ship near NATO waters again overnight. Rabobank is estimating Australia’s wheat crop to drop 13% this year. Wheat is looking for something to give it direction. US exports remain uncompetitive, so wheat is looking at corn for direction and that is not working out very well. Losses were also due to expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting progress.
Wheat opened steady to lower and extended session loses throughout the overnight and into Wednesday’s day session. But the winter wheat markets were able to get back on the positive side by the end of the day session while Mpls closed with small losses. Selling was tied to slow demand as recent wheat importers bought from other exporting countries, with Russia getting the bulk of this week’s tenders. Solid planting progress last week added pressure as producers were able to get 15% of the nation’s winter wheat crop planted last week. Traders are expecting better progress this week as weather appears to be cooperating better.
Wednesday’s losses were kept in check from another escalation in the wars. Russia staged an attack on energy sources in Ukraine overnight and there were reports of more ships were fired on as they made their way towards the Strait of Hormuz. Technically wheat is testing major support and looking for a spot to stage a small recovery.
On Thursday wheat opened the session steady to higher but slipped to end the night session steady to lower. Trading overnight was thin and light as traders look for direction from the other grains. Wheat was able to shake off its early selling pressure once the day session got started with support coming from technical buying and world production concerns only to fade late in the day session and close with small losses. An escalation in the wars added support as Iran will continue to fight until their demand are met and Ukraine is looking at increases their attacks on Russia in response to Russia’s increase in attacks on them. No energy ceasefire. Expana is estimating EU wheat production for 2026 down 2%.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.75, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.65; Dec KC support is $7.15.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.765 down 18.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.605 down 10.5 cents, Dec KC was at $7.04 down 15.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments October 16
Wheat Weekly Comments October 16
To start the week wheat opened lower across the board but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher by the end of the night session. Pressure was due to the lack of news. Today is a government holiday, which has all USDA reports delayed a day. Light selling was also tied to rumors of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, but that lasted as long as it took to say ceasefire. Trump announced the ceasefire last night, but Russia broke the deal when it attacked an energy site in the Ukraine overnight. Losses were trimmed by reports IKAR lower their production estimate for Russia to 88.0 MMT vs 88.5 MMT previously. On the other hand, APK Inform increased their production estimate for Ukraine from 25.0 MMT to 25.5 MMT.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). By the end of the night all three were posting losses. Selling was tied to rumors that Russia was in favor of an energy ceasefire, but Ukraine broke the agreement. Seems odd since it was Russia that sank another cargo ship near NATO waters again overnight. Rabobank is estimating Australia’s wheat crop to drop 13% this year. Wheat is looking for something to give it direction. US exports remain uncompetitive, so wheat is looking at corn for direction and that is not working out very well. Losses were also due to expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting progress.
Wheat opened steady to lower and extended session loses throughout the overnight and into Wednesday’s day session. But the winter wheat markets were able to get back on the positive side by the end of the day session while Mpls closed with small losses. Selling was tied to slow demand as recent wheat importers bought from other exporting countries, with Russia getting the bulk of this week’s tenders. Solid planting progress last week added pressure as producers were able to get 15% of the nation’s winter wheat crop planted last week. Traders are expecting better progress this week as weather appears to be cooperating better.
Wednesday’s losses were kept in check from another escalation in the wars. Russia staged an attack on energy sources in Ukraine overnight and there were reports of more ships were fired on as they made their way towards the Strait of Hormuz. Technically wheat is testing major support and looking for a spot to stage a small recovery.
On Thursday wheat opened the session steady to higher but slipped to end the night session steady to lower. Trading overnight was thin and light as traders look for direction from the other grains. Wheat was able to shake off its early selling pressure once the day session got started with support coming from technical buying and world production concerns only to fade late in the day session and close with small losses. An escalation in the wars added support as Iran will continue to fight until their demand are met and Ukraine is looking at increases their attacks on Russia in response to Russia’s increase in attacks on them. No energy ceasefire. Expana is estimating EU wheat production for 2026 down 2%.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.75, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.65; Dec KC support is $7.15.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.765 down 18.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.605 down 10.5 cents, Dec KC was at $7.04 down 15.25 cents.