To start the week wheat opened with each exchange going in its own direction. Mpls was steady, Chicago was lower, and KC higher. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were in the red. Selling spilled over from a lower soybean and corn market, but light selling was tied to the lack of anything new from the China summit. Wheat was lucky enough to make the non-sensitive goods list and have its tariffs reduced, but it might not matter much since China has not bought a lot of US wheat over the past few years. Light selling was also tied to another disappointing export inspections estimate, which put inspections at the slowest pace in 3 years. Rumors of a potential Black Sea ceasefire added to the pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with each exchange going in its own direction. Mpls was steady, Chicago higher, and KC lower. By the end of the night session all three were posting losses with heavy losses seen in the winter wheat exchanges. Although planting progress is trailing the 5-year average pace, the wheat exchanges saw losses on the expectation that acreage will increase. Reports that Russia is moving grain through the Baltic added pressure. As far as a ceasefire deal, that seems remote due to each country still bombing each other. Overnight Russia sent a host of missiles into Kyiv.
In Wednesday’s session wheat once again opened the session with each of the exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). By the end of the night session and start of the day session all three of the wheat exchanges were posting gains. Expectations today’s reports would be friendly wheat gave the bias to the plus side of ledger as traders squared up positions ahead of report release.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate was friendly wheat with stocks coming in at 1.846 BB, 26 MB below expectations and 288 MB below last year. The Small Grains Summary report was overall friendly wheat as all wheat production came in at 1.534 BB, 10 MB below expectations, 3 MB above last month, but 451 MB below last year.
Winter wheat production was negative at 1.019 BB, 31 MB above expectation, 29 MB above last month, but 383 MB below last year. Other spring wheat production was friendly to HRS wheat as production was estimated at 450 MB, 21 MB below expectations, 24 MB below last month, and 47 MB below last year. But in the end, wheat followed corn down the path of least resistance today.
Wheat opened steady to lower in Thursday’s session but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher during the overnight session. Technical buying gave wheat strength overnight as traders bounced wheat off support levels. Gains were trimmed once the day session got under way due to spill over pressure from a turnaround in the other grains. Disappointing export demand added pressure. Rain is in the forecast for the Southern Plains, which will likely result in an increase in winter wheat planting. One would expect the news that the 2026 wheat crop being the smallest wheat crop since 1970, and winter wheat’s production was the lowest since 1965, and the trifecta being last year being the lowest harvest winter wheat acreage in history should help support wheat. Wheat did manage to bounce into the close.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.75, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.65; Dec KC support is $7.15.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.98 down 15.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.83 down 20.25 cents, Dec KC was at $7.3525 down 26.75 cents.
For the month, Dec MIAX was down 69.75 cents, Dec Chicago was down 98.25 cents, Dec KC was down $1.05.
Wheat Weekly Comments October 2
Wheat Weekly Comments October 2
To start the week wheat opened with each exchange going in its own direction. Mpls was steady, Chicago was lower, and KC higher. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were in the red. Selling spilled over from a lower soybean and corn market, but light selling was tied to the lack of anything new from the China summit. Wheat was lucky enough to make the non-sensitive goods list and have its tariffs reduced, but it might not matter much since China has not bought a lot of US wheat over the past few years. Light selling was also tied to another disappointing export inspections estimate, which put inspections at the slowest pace in 3 years. Rumors of a potential Black Sea ceasefire added to the pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with each exchange going in its own direction. Mpls was steady, Chicago higher, and KC lower. By the end of the night session all three were posting losses with heavy losses seen in the winter wheat exchanges. Although planting progress is trailing the 5-year average pace, the wheat exchanges saw losses on the expectation that acreage will increase. Reports that Russia is moving grain through the Baltic added pressure. As far as a ceasefire deal, that seems remote due to each country still bombing each other. Overnight Russia sent a host of missiles into Kyiv.
In Wednesday’s session wheat once again opened the session with each of the exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). By the end of the night session and start of the day session all three of the wheat exchanges were posting gains. Expectations today’s reports would be friendly wheat gave the bias to the plus side of ledger as traders squared up positions ahead of report release.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate was friendly wheat with stocks coming in at 1.846 BB, 26 MB below expectations and 288 MB below last year. The Small Grains Summary report was overall friendly wheat as all wheat production came in at 1.534 BB, 10 MB below expectations, 3 MB above last month, but 451 MB below last year.
Winter wheat production was negative at 1.019 BB, 31 MB above expectation, 29 MB above last month, but 383 MB below last year. Other spring wheat production was friendly to HRS wheat as production was estimated at 450 MB, 21 MB below expectations, 24 MB below last month, and 47 MB below last year. But in the end, wheat followed corn down the path of least resistance today.
Wheat opened steady to lower in Thursday’s session but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher during the overnight session. Technical buying gave wheat strength overnight as traders bounced wheat off support levels. Gains were trimmed once the day session got under way due to spill over pressure from a turnaround in the other grains. Disappointing export demand added pressure. Rain is in the forecast for the Southern Plains, which will likely result in an increase in winter wheat planting. One would expect the news that the 2026 wheat crop being the smallest wheat crop since 1970, and winter wheat’s production was the lowest since 1965, and the trifecta being last year being the lowest harvest winter wheat acreage in history should help support wheat. Wheat did manage to bounce into the close.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.75, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.65; Dec KC support is $7.15.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.98 down 15.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.83 down 20.25 cents, Dec KC was at $7.3525 down 26.75 cents.
For the month, Dec MIAX was down 69.75 cents, Dec Chicago was down 98.25 cents, Dec KC was down $1.05.